Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 22.428721 24.699954 27.264842 30.412687 34.224954 38.765619 44.700831
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 19.240747 22.320951 26.141165 31.384901 38.680087 48.987721 65.837185
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 16.785715 20.272117 24.933965 31.987002 43.197778 62.296791 104.296809
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 14.749783 18.360289 23.478107 31.871548 46.929931 78.105734 180.040044
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 13.380979 17.107455 22.676694 32.547388 52.658496 105.527672 461.645548
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 12.190823 15.911165 21.708921 32.671130 57.742898 143.121004 4059.402587
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.272410 14.979923 20.976794 33.018874 63.972590 209.322492 NaN
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.506460 14.175931 20.304010 33.290524 70.680449 333.775789 NaN
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.015414 13.742151 20.193340 34.755332 83.255972 839.022957 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.340615 12.925028 19.244587 33.993424 87.397972 1978.392209 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.828892 12.327960 18.620469 33.859675 94.775993 123782.851345 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.458094 11.932585 18.325133 34.501174 107.932445 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.066169 11.491480 17.933091 34.957388 123.726563 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.723951 11.111644 17.624679 35.634010 145.898149 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.389760 10.718210 17.238392 35.995552 170.464600 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.038631 10.265281 16.666917 35.596868 188.820857 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.785451 9.973013 16.412247 36.230778 231.813011 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.521016 9.638282 16.019034 36.255001 272.914354 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 6.296882 9.362614 15.726945 36.583575 338.583494 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 6.088928 9.102268 15.438579 36.847027 428.607245 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 5.961604 8.987714 15.481768 38.545613 732.468944 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 5.732806 8.658535 14.964916 37.610999 820.870735 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 5.552458 8.414335 14.633583 37.432893 1107.858835 NaN NaN